A Critical Change in India

The Indian natural gas sector is having issues.

Natgas output in April 2013 fell 17.4% month-on-month, according to data just released from the federal government.

In fact, Indian natgas production has been seeing double-digit monthly declines for the last two years. The chart below shows India’s change from positive to negative output growth.

130531 India Gas Production Chart

Much of the production decline is because of disappointing performance from the D6 field run by Reliance Industries and BP. The field was commissioned in 2009, causing the big spike in the chart above. But output has been flagging at an unexpected rate since.

This is why India is moving more aggressively into the LNG market. Indian gas marketers have been some of the first to sign contracts for LNG export projects underway in the U.S.

The nation is going to be looking for more supply. At the same time as China, Korea and Japan are all ravenously hunting down Asian cargos.

Potential suppliers to this region are getting a lot of attention. Australia is seeing a big LNG build-out. Where else might benefit? Indonesia? East Africa?

We’ll keep an eye on this corner of the world to see.

Here’s to energy in the right places,

Dave Forest

dforest@piercepoints.com

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